NFL Week 4 odds, predictions, picks: Advanced computer model loves Patriots, Cowboys – CBSSports.com

The NFL’s fourth weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

The
Dallas Cowboys
are six-point favorites over the
Los Angeles Rams
, the
New England Patriots
are favored by nine at home against the
Carolina Panthers
in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement, and the
Kansas City Chiefs
are touchdown favorites against the
Washington Redskins
on “Monday Night Football.”

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you’ll want to know to what SportsLine’s advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine’s Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season — better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.

Every single one.

SportsLine computer picks also would have won over 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up picks last season. It’s fresh off a week in which it called the
Indianapolis Colts
‘ upset of the
Cleveland Browns
and the
Minnesota Vikings
‘ stunning victory over the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
. It also called the Packers easily covering a seven-point spread on Thursday night against the Bears.

With Week 4 already here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team the model loves: the New England Patriots. Don’t let last week’s letdown fool you.
Tom Brady
won’t need a game-winning drive to put away a struggling Carolina Panthers team Sunday. The model has the Patriots winning 73 percent of simulations and covering the nine-point spread, 28-18.

Another team the model loves: the Dallas Cowboys. They’re favored by six at home against the Rams, but SportsLine’s model has them easily covering, 27-17. The line opened at Dallas -8, but heavy money on the Rams pushed it down two points. The Rams are 29th in rushing defense, so look for Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott to run wild on Sunday.

One surprise: the
Philadelphia Eagles
, fresh off a dramatic victory over the
New York Giants
on a 61-yard field goal, will win outright, 25-23, as one-point underdogs on the West Coast against the
Los Angeles Chargers
. The model has the Eagles winning 55 percent of simulations. The Chargers are 0-2 against the spread this season.

The model also is calling for a road favorite to get absolutely stunned, meaning a huge payday for anyone who bets on the big-time home underdog.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Chiefs-Redskins game is a virtual lock, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season, as well as picks from 16 experts.


New Orleans Saints
vs.
Miami Dolphins
(+3, 50.5)

Cincinnati Bengals
at Cleveland Browns (+3 41.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 48.5)

Detroit Lions
at Minnesota Vikings (-2, 42.5)

Tennessee Titans
at
Houston Texans
(+2, 43.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars
at
New York Jets
(+3, 38)

Pittsburgh Steelers
at
Baltimore Ravens
(+3, 42)
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 49.5)

Buffalo Bills
at
Atlanta Falcons
(-8, 48.5)
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)

San Francisco 49ers
at
Arizona Cardinals
(-6.5, 44.5)

Oakland Raiders
at
Denver Broncos
(-3, 46)
Indianapolis Colts at
Seattle Seahawks
(-13, 41.5)
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)

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